🇪🇬 Marmoush vs Salah at the Etihad 👀 

Since the Messi and Ronaldo saga ended in Spain, one fixture has grabbed the attention of football fans around the world. Yes, we’re arguing that Man City vs Liverpool is a more interesting watch than El Classico these days. And this Sunday, as the 2024/25 Premier League season enters its final months and with Liverpool on the verge of winning their 20th league title, the game at the Etihad is even more important.

Hit hard by injuries to key players and missing the winning attitude that saw them win 4 title in a row, Manchester City are currently 4th in the league and scrapping to secure a top-four finish. Meanwhile, a full 16 points ahead of City, league leaders Liverpool are looking to keep it steady to secure a historic title in what has been an incredible first season for Arne Slot. The one true king of the bald managers from Holland.

In this derby edition, we take a look at this crucial fixture, which isn’t a derby but definitely the top fixture in the Premier League calendar.

Derby breakdown ⚔️ Man City vs Liverpool

• Venue: Etihad Stadium

• Date: Sunday 23rd February

• Kick-off: 16:30 GMT

At the time of writing (Liverpool play a league game against Aston Villa tonight) Liverpool are 7 points clear of Arsenal who are in 2nd and a massive 16 points ahead of City who occupy the last Champions League spot. Liverpool have been leading the chasing pack since the start of the season, and Slot’s team can extend the gap if they get a result away at Aston Villa tonight.

Thinking about each teams’s season so far, it’s been a season of contrasts. Liverpool are flying high at the top of the Premier League, Salah is banging in goals and the talk of key players being out of contract at the end of the season isn’t having a negative affect. This Liverpool team has been fearless under Arne Slot and certainly shown no signs of post-Klopp blues.

On the other hand, Man City have seen their campaign badly derailed by injuries to key players —most notably Rodri, whose long-term absence has disrupted the balance of Pep’s midfield from the beginning of the season. Cracks have started to appear in the City machine, and the threat of a major punishment for the 115 charges is getting bigger.

This is the club and the manager that for so long seemed so certain of themselves. But now, both the club and the manager are suffering from fear, uncertainty and doubt.

All eyes will be on this game to see if City can keep Salah out of the goals and slow Liverpool down.

Head-to-Head & Current Form 📅

Historically, out of 217 previous Premier League encounters, Liverpool have 109 wins and Manchester City have 60 wins, with 58 matches ending in draws. A look at the recent head-to-head stats also brings good news for Liverpool fans. The Reds are unbeaten in their last 3 games against City, with the return fixture back in December ending 2-nil to Liverpool with goals from Cody Gakpo and Mo Salah.

But that game was at Anfield, and Sunday’s game is at the Etihad. Looking at the results at the Etihad paints a different picture, as this is a stadium where Liverpool haven’t won a game since November 2015!

Looking at the form of these teams, it’s Liverpool that have the better statistics. Over the season, Liverpool have recorded 18 wins, 6 draws, and 1 losses which is a win percentage of 72%. If we look specifically at Liverpool’s away form, it is excellent with 9 wins, 4 draws, and no losses!

Liverpool’s recent form has been less convincing, but even when they are not at their best this Liverpool team are still picking up points. Last week in the final Merseyside derby at Goodison Park, Liverpool conceded in the 96th minute to draw 2-2 with Everton. And then, over the weekend they were far from convincing in their 2-1 home win over Wolves.

Although Salah played well and they went 2-nil up in the first half, Liverpool didn’t have any shots at all in the second half of the game —that was the first time Liverpool haven’t had a shot in a half of football in 8 years.

As season’s go, this is the worst City have been in a long time. City have 13 wins, 5 draws, and a massive 7 losses —a win percentage of just 52%! Looking at theior home form, the Etihad is far from the fortress it used to be as there have been 8 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses at the Etihad. They lost 2-1 to Man United in December and there was a 4-nil home loss to Tottenham back in November —so City are definitely beatable at the Etihad these days.

In recent weeks City have continued with the inconsistent performances. The match against Arsenal at the start of February resulted in a 5-1 thrashing by the Gunners after City had levelled the game at 1-1 in the 55th minute. There was then a hard-fought home loss to Real Madrid in the Champions League before the most recent Premier League match —a big 4-nil win over Newcastle.

The result against Newcastle has settled the nerves of many City fans who were worried after their team’s losses to Arsenal and Real Madrid. Pep got the tactics spot on against a strong Newcastle team, but it was the first-half performance that really blew Newcastle away. Aside from the result, the big confidence boost for City was the stand out performance from new signing Omar Marmoush.

Marmoush who signed for City in January from Eintracht Frankfurt in a deal reported to be worth £63 million, announced himself to the City fans with a superb 15-minute hat-trick. The other big plus for City is that there defence managed to keep out Alexander Isak, who is the in-form striker and comparable to Salah in-terms of his finishing ability. So, there are plenty of positives for City going into Sunday’s game —the intriguing battle for us is that this game couyld turn into a competition betweeen two Egyptian strikers: Salah vs Marmoush.

Tactical breakdown 🎯

We all know how City like to play: Guardiola wants his team to dominate possession and control the tempo of the game —City have averages 61% possession in the Premier League this season. But without Rodri in the holding role, City have had to adapt. We’ve seen Guardiola adopt a flexible double pivot this season, and the signing of Nico Gonzalez has given City much more balance in their midfield.

City still look to build patiently from the back, using their centre-backs to draw Liverpool’s forwards into a press, but we’re also seeing Ederson hit a lot more vertical passes over the halfway line. That’s exactly how Ederson was able to assist Marmoush for City’s first goal against Newcastle.

In this game, expect City to use Haaland to keep Virgil Van Dijk occupied and then get direct balls in behind Liverpool’s backline for the rapid Marmoush to run onto.

GR Man City predicted lineup | Ederson, Lewis, Dias, Stones, Gvardiol, Gonzalez, B. Silva, Savinho, Marmoush, Foden, Haaland

Arne Slot seems to be the perfect replacement for Jurgen Klopp. Under Slot, Liverpool have continued with the iconic high-press and these days they are the masters of the high-intensity pressing game, averaging 7.7 interceptions per match.

Slot relies on his midfielders getting in the face of the opposition ball carriers but also relies on his forwards to put pressure on the opponent from different angles. Liverpool’s press is like a vice that crushes from both sides and forces their opponents into an unworkable speed of play.

The midfielders Gravebberch and MacAllister are having great seasons, but it’s Mo Salah who has been the main man for Liverpool again this season. Salah has netted 23 goals and assisted 14 times in 25 games. Another player who gets a mention is Cody Gakpo who has been sensational playing between left wing and central striker with his tireless off-the-ball movement.

Liverpool will look to close down City’s ball carriers early, particularly in the central midfield zone and then spring rapid transitions through Salah and Diaz. Ojne thing is almost certain in this game and that is that Liverpool will score —they’ve scored at least one goal in 92% of their league games this season.

GR Liverpool predicted lineup | Alisson, Alexander-Arnold, Konate, Van Dijk, Tsimikas, Gravenberch, Mac Allister, Salah, Jones, Diaz, Nunez

Players to watch 👀

Of course, Erling Haaland will have a part to play in this game but we think this game will be a battle between the Egyptians. Also keep an eye out for the main men in midfield for both teams.

Mo Salah | 23 Goals & 14 Assists in 25 Premier League games

Omar Marmoush | 3 goals in 3 Premier League games

Alexis MacAllister | 2 goals & 3 assists in 24 Premier League games

Nico Gonzalez | 100+ pass attempts in 1 Premier League game

Top goal scorers ⚽️

1. Mo Salah | 23 goals

2. Erling Haaland | 19 goals

3. Luis Diaz | 9 goals

4. Cody Gakpo | 8 goals

5. Phil Foden | 7 goals

This game has a high probability of goals, with both teams likely to score given the offensive strength and firepower in each of these teams. Most predictive models are predicting over 2.5 goals with an 85% probability, with Mo Salah the most likely to score.

Keep in mind that Liverpool have a league game against Aston Villa to get through whilst City have the return leg of their last 16 Champions League tie against Real Madrid.

Most assists 🎯

Gone are the days when Kevin De Bruyne used to get assists for fun in the Premier League. The Egyptian King Mo Salah leads with total assists.

1. Mo Salah | 14 assists

2. Savinho | 7 assists

3. De Bruyne | 6 assists

4. Alexander-Arnold | 6 assists

5. Doku | 4 assists

Most fouls / yellow cards 🟨

Both of these teams and managers understand the usefulness of a tactical yellow card and have drilled their teams in stopping counter attacks and transitions. Liverpool’s number of yellow cards highlights their intense pressing game.

1. MacAllister | 6 yellows

2. Nunez | 6 yellows

3. Szoboszlai | 6 yellows

4. B. Silva | 5 yellows

5. Rico Lewis | 5 yellows

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